Taking the last 4 years results I found out a percentage of making the playoffs against similar teams based on only the first game of the year.
Teams were divided in 8 categories. Either you were a playoff team or not from the previous year and either you won or lost the first game of this year against a playoff team or a non playoff team.
Take for example Vancouver and Philadelphia . The Canucks had made the playoffs last year. Opening night they lost to the LA Kings also a playoff team from 2010. Philly, also made the playoffs and won their first game against the Penguins who made the playoffs. Each Vancouver and Philly would be in different categories. Over the last 4 years each category had a percentage of teams who made the playoffs in the current year. If you would like to see more in detail, look back in the blog for all the results.
So lets look at the current standings to see how accurate the stats are.
1. Playoff teams who won vs a playoff team. 61% of these teams in last 4 years has made the playoffs. Currently 60% of these teams are in the playoffs
Colorado *
Phoenix*
Los Angeles
Buffalo
Philadelphia *
2. Playoff teams who lost vs a playoff team. 47% made the playoffs. Right now 80% of teams are in playoff position. Can drop it to 60% if you move Chicago in 9th as they are currently tied for 7th.
Chicago*
Ottawa
Pittsburgh*
Boston *
Vancouver*
3. Playoff teams who won vs a non playoff team. 88%. Over the 4 years, there was only 1 instance where a team in this category missed the playoffs. Columbus Blue Jackets were that team last year. Currently 2 of these 3 are in the playoffs and the third San Jose is tied with Chicago for 7th.
Detroit*
San Jose
Nashville*
4. Playoff team who lost vs a non playoff team. 77%. Currently at 66% which is as close as you can get with 3 teams.
Montreal *
New Jersey
Washington*
5. Non Playoff team who won vs a playoff team. 51%. If either 2 or 3 of these teams make the playoff this category will be a success. Currently there are 3.
St. Louis
New York Rangers *
Atlanta*
Dallas*
Toronto
6. Non Playoff team who lost vs a playoff team. 29%. The lowest percentage of teams who went on and made the playoffs. Success here would be either none or 1 to make the playoffs and right now there is one.
Anaheim*
Columbus
7. Non Playoff team who won vs a non playoff team. 42%. Sitting at 33% right now. Looking pretty good here.
Tampa Bay*
Carolina
Edmonton
8. Non Playoff team who lost vs a non playoff team. 33%. Currently zero teams are in the playoffs. It is close though for Minnesota and Calgary as they are 1 and 2 points out respectively.
Calgary
Florida
New York Islanders
Minnesota
To think a 82 game season could be predicted after game 1 would be ridiculous, but these results are within a point here and there of being as close as 100% as you can get.
