Saturday, October 9, 2010

After Game one - Chances your team makes the playoffs

Last week I looked at team chances of making the playoffs based on the result of the previous season and who you play on opening night the next season. Click Here

There were 8 different scenarios your team could have been in after game 1

1. Previous Playoff Team who Won vs Previous Playoff Team
2. Previous Playoff Team who Lost vs Previous Playoff Team
3. Previous Playoff Team who Won vs Previous Lottery Team
4. Previous Playoff Team who Lost vs Previous Lottery Team
5. Previous Lottery Team who Won vs Previous Playoff Team
6. Previous Lottery Team who Lost vs Previous Playoff Team
7. Previous Lottery Team who Lost vs Previous Lottery Team
8. Previous Lottery Team who lost vs Previous Lottery Team

I know Florida hasn't played yet, but really its unlikely they make the playoffs anyway.

So for each scenario I found of the percentage of teams who then went on to make the playoffs.

Here are the results with each team in each category

1. 61% of these teams in the past 4 years have made the playoffs (3.05 Teams)

Colorado
Phoenix
Los Angeles
Buffalo
Philadelphia

2. 47% of these teams in the past 4 years have made the playoffs (2.35 Teams)

Chicago
Ottawa
Pittsburgh
Boston
Vancouver

3. 88% of these teams in the past 4 years have made the playoffs (2.64 Teams)

Detroit
San Jose
Nashville

4. 77% of these teams in the past 4 years have made the playoffs (2.31 Teams)

Montreal
New Jersey
Washington

5. 51% of these teams in the past 4 years have made the playoffs (2.55 Teams)

St Louis
New York Rangers
Atlanta
Dallas
Toronto

6. 29% of these teams in the past 4 years have made the playoffs (.58 Teams)

Anaheim
Columbus

7. 42% of these teams in the past 4 years have made the playoffs (1.68 Teams)

Tampa Bay
Edmonton
Carolina
Florida?

8. 33% of these teams in the past 4 years have made the playoffs (1 Team)

Calgary
Minnesota
New York Islanders


Here is some crazy accuracy to this now. If you take playoff predictions from TSN, The The Hockey News, My predictions as well as what the standings would be based on the Over/Under for team points from Vegas, and compare them with a combination of the stats about you get these results. Note: You obviously cannot have half a team make the playoffs so in all cases I rounded up to the nearest team.


East 75% Accurate
West 88% accurate

East 88% Accurate
West 88% Accurate

East 88% Accurate
West 88% Accurate

East 88% Accurate
West 88% Accurate


Overall 86% Accurate

Now most people in hockey will say the result of the first game does not make the season, but after looking at these stats and comparing them to the experts (minus myself) predictions and being that accurate its hard to argue against those stats.

I will look at these results and compare them to the final standings to see if they stay true.

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